Economists appear to be lowering their expectations of the impact tariffs will have on the U.S. economy.
🔍 CNBC Daily Open: The Investor Shift from Tariffs to Growth
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Tariffs no longer dominate investor concerns. According to CNBC commentary, more tariff letters and enforcement threats haven’t spooked markets recently—investors are increasingly focused on fundamentals like AI-driven growth and big tech earnings instead Investopedia+4NBC Los Angeles+4NBC10 Philadelphia+4.
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The prevailing narrative is that investors have adopted a “tariffs are just noise” mindset—markets now price in the threat, but look for earnings surprises and macro signals as true drivers.
📈 Why Investors Are Moving Beyond Trade Noise
1. The “TACO Trade” Effect
Markets expect future tariff threats to follow the “Trump Always Chickens Out” (TACO) pattern—where aggressive rhetoric is often eased when markets destabilize Wikipedia+1MarketWatch+1.
2. Legal & Structural Barriers
Legal rulings have constrained enforcement of sweeping tariffs. With courts blocking broad authority, many believe threatened tariffs won’t ultimately hold up MarketWatch.
3. Confidence in Macro Fundamentals
Strong employment data, consumer spending, and corporate earnings forecasts have reassured investors that economic momentum remains intact MarketWatchBusiness Insider.
🌐 Markets Still Acknowledge Tariff Risks—But…
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Despite investor optimism, tariff rates (15–20%) have significantly ramped up from pre-2024 levels (around 2–3%), raising questions over future cost impacts for consumers and businesses Reuters+3Reuters+3MarketWatch+3.
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Some analysts warn current valuations may underestimate the long-term drag of sustained tariffs and trade disputes — even where short-term relief is present Axios.
💡 What Are Investors Looking Toward Now?
– Earnings & AI Momentum
Markets are chasing strong results from AI-focused mega-cap stocks (e.g., Alphabet, Microsoft), which are delivering outsized profit growth and driving broader optimism Reuters.
– Upcoming Macro & Fed Signals
This week features key economic data—PCE inflation, payrolls, and Fed commentary—that could steer market direction more than trade headlines Reuters.
– Trade Progress with Japan & EU
New deals—which capped tariffs at 15% and secured major investment and export pledges—have eased uncertainty, although deeper risks with China and other regions still persist Reuters+6Axios+6Axios+6.
📊 Quick View: From Tariff Risk to Earnings Focus
| Theme | Market Signal | Investor Sentiment |
|---|---|---|
| Tariff threats | Priced in, expected to be delayed | Represent downside risk, but sidelined |
| Legal & structural limits | Courts limit implementation | Credible hope for de-escalation |
| Trade deals (Japan, EU) | Trade clarity improves sentiment | Boosts near-term risk appetite |
| AI & Big Tech earnings | Driving indices to new highs | Markets chasing fundamentals instead |
| Macro/U.S. data & Fed tone | Key drivers for next moves | Focused attention replacing tariff anxiety |
✅ Bottom Line
According to CNBC Daily Open, investors increasingly feel that tariffs have done their job: they’ve removed uncertainty, and now it’s time for markets to rally on real catalysts, like corporate earnings, AI innovation, and steady economic data. Tariffs are still part of the backdrop—but no longer the front-page concern driving sentiment.
