“Unlike Thailand, Cambodia has fewer policy tools … to cushion the blow,” says Sreeparna Banerjee, associate research fellow at Observer Research Foundation.
📌 Why Cambodia Has More at Stake
1. 🚧 Trade Disruption and Heavy Economic Impact
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The conflict is causing border closures and trade halts that cut bilateral trade by roughly 500 million baht per day—against annual trade of around 175 billion baht in 2024. That represents a major economic shock for Cambodia Reddit+15The Pechko Perspective+15The Times+15.
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Cambodia depends on imports from Thailand for about 30% of its fuel and electricity intake, and Thailand has banned fuel, agricultural products, media, and digital services in retaliation—all of which compounds pressures on Cambodia’s energy and media sectors The Pechko Perspective+1Cambodgemag+1.
2. ⚠️ Strong Export Exposure
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About 40% of Cambodia’s GDP comes from exports, with 27% of that destined for the U.S. Even moderate tariffs or trade friction—and the border dispute—could accelerate economic fragility Modern Diplomacy.
3. 🛑 Broader Diplomatic & Infrastructure Impacts
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Cambodia’s ongoing appeal to the International Court of Justice (ICJ) contrasts with Thailand’s preference for the bilateral Joint Boundary Commission (JBC)—heightening uncertainty over resolution timelines Cambodgemag+5The Pechko Perspective+5nationthailand+5.
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Border-related infrastructure investments and regional integration projects are now in doubt, undermining long-term economic planning Reddit.
✅ How Thailand Is Holding Up
1. 📉 Investor Sentiment Impact but Fundamentals Hold
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The Stock Exchange of Thailand (SET) has declined ~4.8% since mid-May, especially affecting exporters to Cambodia such as Carabao Group and Osotspa nationthailand+4Thaiger+4Bangkok Post+4.
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Analysts characterize this as largely a psychological dent in sentiment, not a structural one—Thai firms continue investing in Cambodia with contingency plans in place Thaiger+2nationthailand+2Bangkok Post+2.
2. 🧾 Economic Diversification
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Thailand is less reliant on Cambodian imports, and migrant labor flows (500,000 Cambodian workers are employed in Thailand) help sustain key sectors like agriculture and construction—even amid restrictions on cross-border labor and trade amp.dw.com+3Cambodgemag+3Bangkok Post+3.
📊 Comparison Table
| Country | Key Vulnerabilities | Analysts’ View |
|---|---|---|
| Cambodia | High import dependency, export-exposed economy, stalled aid flows | Main economic loser amid disrupted trade and infrastructure |
| Thailand | Market sentiment impact, border trade interruptions | Short-term psychological impact; core operations remain intact |
🔭 What Comes Next?
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Whether border restrictions extend beyond key checkpoints like Aranyaprathet could deepen the fallout for both countries Cambodgemagnationthailandtime.com+9nationthailand+9amp.dw.com+9.
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Thailand’s plan to downgrade diplomatic ties and adopt tougher economic measures may escalate tensions further Cambodgemag.
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Cambodia will likely push forward with its call to the ICJ for a binding ruling, which Thailand may reject—leading to prolonged deadlock and economic uncertainty The Guardian+5Cambodgemag+5AP News+5.
🧠 Expert Take
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Analysts suggest that Cambodia’s economy—due to its export dependence, reliance on Thai utilities, and weaker fiscal buffers—is significantly more vulnerable to border disruptions than Thailand’s.
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Thai companies with Cambodia exposure face declining sentiment but are operationally resilient and employ mitigation tactics, such as rerouting trade via maritime routes or maintaining production locally nationthailandThaiger.
🚨 In Summary
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Cambodia is facing direct economic losses and structural instability from stalled imports, trade bans, and export shocks.
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Thailand’s economy is being tested in terms of investor morale and regional trade but continues to drive broader production and mobility—limiting deeper systemic damage.
